The much-anticipated impeachment vote will more than likely take place at the end of the upcoming week.
That vote, however, may not be as much of a lock as people are being led to believe.
Problems in the Party
We already know at least two Democrats are not going to vote in favor of this impeachment.
In fact, Rep. Van Drew (D-NJ) just stated that he is considering changing parties.
Van Drew recently met with the President, who convinced him he would be far better as a member of the GOP than he is as a Democrat.
As far as the rest of the party goes, I believe this could be a much closer call than most pundits are saying.
Road to Impeachment
Of the 431 seats currently filled in Congress, there are roughly 32 votes up in question.
These votes are up for grabs because 31 of those Democrats reside in districts won by Trump in 2016 as well as one of those Dems joining the group of Democrats that have already approached leadership about backing off and issuing a censure to Trump.
Assuming everyone else votes along party lines, that would put the impeachment vote as 201 “yes” and 197 “no” votes.
This means that Pelosi is going to need almost half the votes that are up for grabs.
Two of those 32 are virtual locks to vote against the impeachment, which only leaves 30 votes left that are questionable.
We would like to think at least half the people that went to leadership about a censure will vote against the impeachment, which would now leave us at 25 votes, with Pelosi needing 15 of those to win this impeachment.
As votes are cast and these individuals see more Democrats defecting, are they going to be willing to pull the trigger on what will go down as the most partisan impeachment in our history?
Even if Pelosi gets those votes and wins this impeachment, she still fails because she promised a bipartisan effort and she will not have even convinced every member of her own party.
Everything you read above is exactly why Pelosi is rushing this vote to ensure her own party members don’t get too much time to think about what the are voting.
Even so, don’t be surprised to see a very narrow win or, best case scenario, an outright victory for Donald Trump.