There is a new leader in the Democrat primary, but it is not who you probably think.
Yes, Joe Biden is losing, but he is losing to Hillary Clinton!
New Polls Bad News for Joe
With Hillary Clinton recently saying she may get into the race, a new poll was taken on the premise that her name would be on the ballot.
It was not shocking that Biden lost the lead, but it was a surprise to see Hillary at the top of the poll.
Harvard-Harris, top 5 current 2020 field among Democratic voters:
If Hillary Clinton and John Kerry get in race?
Buttigieg & Kerry 5https://t.co/KiEbT2ik7Z
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) December 9, 2019
Breaking It All Down
First, let’s address the issue of Hillary being atop this poll.
While she did take the lead, it is important to note that John Kerry was also added to the poll.
He more than likely took even more votes away from Biden.
So, if Kerry was not in there, I would suspect that Biden would be at least even, if not ahead of Hillary.
Of significant note, though, is the damage that was done to both Warren and Sanders.
It makes it pretty clear moderate Democrats are going to rule the day and neither Warren nor Sanders really have a shot here unless Joe Biden really screws up, which is very much still in play.
Secondly, Hillary is running out of time to make her move.
She has already missed the filing date for several states and over the next week or so, most of the filing deadlines will have passed.
Point being, if we don’t hear about Hillary announcing within the next seven days or so, she can’t run.
The only way around that would be if the states offered her a special exemption to file past the deadline.
The ONLY way I see that happening is if Joe does end up withdrawing or makes another massive misstep that loses him the bulk of his support.
However, any exception at this point will be met with incredible scrutiny considering the candidate.
After all, Democrats would still have close to a dozen candidates from which to choose, so it would be very difficult to make the case the Dems needed Hillary for a fair race.